General ETFs

This week’s rout in the U.S. Treasury Bond market could signal trouble ahead for rising interest rates and U.S. economic growth. Bonds were crushed this week as the Federal Reserve’s “QE2″ program came to an end. chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com In the chart of (IEZ) above, we can see how the 7-10 Year ETF was pummeled as interest rates rose this week. The 10 Year hit its highest yield since May and fell for five straight days to log their largest weekly loss in nearly two years. U.S. bond auctions experienced poor demand this week, forcing yields to rise more than .3% on the week, the highest since August, 2009. With the end of “QE2,” everyone is wondering who is going to buy all of the U.S. debt that will be coming due in weeks and months ahead. Some of the loudest queries have come from bond giant, PIMCO, executives. In an article on PIMCO’s website, Anthony J. Crescenzi, says, “The Biggest Buyer Leaves the Store But the...

Here is the ETF Professor's ETF Watch List for Tuesday June 21, 2011. Watch for some follow through on the Market Vectors Rare Earths/Strategic Metals ETF (NYSE: REMX). Three days of gains could mean stocks are ready for a pullback so keep an eye on the ProShares UltraShort S&P500 (NYSE: SDS). The SPDR S&P Retail ETF (NYSE: XRT) got a nice bounce on Monday. Trade energy equities with the ProShares UltraShort Oil & Gas (NYSE: DUG). Emerging markets plays of the day: Vanguard MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (NYSE: VWO), Direxion Daily Latin America Bear 3X Shares (NYSE: LHB) and SPRD S&P Emerging Europe ETF (NYSE: GUR). Forex play of the day: CurrencyShares Swiss Franc Trust (NYSE: FXF).

This will certainly be a wild week for ETF investors as the Greek drama continues to unfold and a series of economic reports come in during the week. At Wall Street Sector Selector we continue to feel comfortable with our inverse ETF and put option positions. Our portfolios generally were flat to slightly higher with the Option Master being the best performer (and the highest risk) with unrealized gains so far of +22.7%, +6.6% and +9.5% in our three positions that all were initiated on June 7, 2011. On My Wall Street Radar chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com In the chart above, we can see how the S&P 500 (SPY) managed to stay above the all important 200 Day Moving Average and remains relatively oversold with RSI in the mid 30s and still well below its 50 Day Moving Average, while MACD continues to indicate negative momentum. A short term bounce here wouldn’t be a surprise, however, Friday’s action was relatively weak into the close and significant...

So now it’s really crunch time for global stock market and ETF investors. The major indexes are down six weeks in a row, the longest stretch for the Dow Jones Industrials (NYSE: DIA) since 2002 and since 2008 for the S&P 500. (NYSE: SPY) Major fundamental problems have been exposed and we sit just above significant support levels that, if breached, will likely lead to lower lows ahead. At Wall Street Sector Selector our Standard and Options portfolios logged nice gains this week and we feel comfortable with our inverse ETF and put option positions going forward into the week ahead. On My Wall Street Radar Chart courtesy of www.stockcharts.com On a technical basis, the market has broken through significant support and now is on a “sell” signal with a downside price objective of 1160. Next major support is at 1250 on the point and figure chart which corresponds closely to the widely watched 200 Day Moving Average at 1253 and the recent March lows...

Debt, debt and more debt flared into global financial crises last week as central banks from Greece, to Spain and the United States grappled with the imperiled finances of sinking nation states. Sovereign debt, along with bearish technical and fundamental indicators, makes this a treacherous moment for stock market investors both at home and abroad. On My Investing Radar The NYSE Bullish Percent Index is one of the major charts I watch for long term trends in ETFs and the U.S. stock market and the NYSEBP turned bearish this week which is yet another warning flag going forward into the “sell in May” and go away period. The NYSE Bullish Percent Index measures the percent of all NYSE stocks on a point and figure buy signal, and this index switched to “bear confirmed” as of May 20, 2011 which indicates a significant change of tone for the broad U.S. stock market. This traditional chart of the S&P 500 (SPY) shows the index below its...

Red flags are flying everywhere as we travel farther into the “sell in May and go away” period of the year.” At Wall Street Sector Selector, we remain in a defensive posture and continue to enjoy unrealized gains in our inverse ETF positions and put options. On My Radar Volatility was the name of the game last week and we can expect more ahead as we enter the seasonally difficult “worst six months of the year” according to the “sell in May and go away” slogan. The View From 35,000 Feet Lots of exciting things are going on around us as we head into late spring. Here’s just a quick executive summary with my thoughts in parenthesis: 1. United States will reach its debt ceiling limit on Monday. (This one is making markets really nervous as witnessed by Friday’s action. Everyone expects Congress to raise the ceiling but the Republican and Tea Party insistence on meaningful budget cuts first puts an unusual level of stress on...

Not surprisingly, news of Osama bin Laden's death at the hands of U.S. forces looks like it could send stocks soaring on Monday. Equity futures spiked Sunday while the news is weighing on oil. Some of the air is coming out of the gold trade and, if you can believe it, the dollar is rising. In addition to gold, palladium and platinum are plunging as is silver, which was under substantial pressure before the bin Laden news broke. So we could see stocks and the dollar rally on Monday while leaving some of the precious metals that have been highly correlated to the S&P 500 behind, for a day at least. Use these ETFs to play enthusiasm surrounding the death of one of the world's most unsavory bad guys. 1) PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE: UUP): For those choosing UUP as their weapon of choice as the “We got bin Laden” trade, be advised one day does not end a trend...

April has drawn to a close so now everyone and his sister can start fretting about “sell in May and go away,” but before that issue becomes a legitimate concern (if it does at all), let's pause to reflect and note that April was the best month in terms of performance since December for the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq. The Dow gained 4% on the month and while the Nasdaq only booked a small gain today, it should be noted the tech-heavy index did so in the face of not only looming rebalancing for the Nasdaq 100, but a profit warning from BlackBerry maker Research In Motion (Nasdaq: RIMM) that sent that stock tumbling by 14%. With that, let's have a look some key ETFs to watch next week. 1) Market Vectors Coal ETF (NYSE: KOL): Earnings season has basically been pretty good to KOL and the ETF continues to be touted as a Japan earthquake play, but that story...

This week’s soap opera in Washington, D.C. was truly the “theatre of the absurd” as Congress and the President wrangled over an “historic” $39 Billion budget cut that pales sadly in comparison to the $189 Billion deficit that the Federal Government ran up in March alone. We’ll discuss this in greater detail in a moment, but for today, Wall Street Sector Selector is content with its positions in gold, oil and inverse exchange traded funds and we remain in the defensive mode, anticipating stronger headwinds ahead.  On My Radar In the chart above we can see that the S&P500 remains in a bearish signal mode with a price objective of 1160. Strong overhead resistance is at 1330 which held this week and support lies at the 1250 level. We have been in this range for the last 25 trading days but, as always, this sideways action will be broken one way or the other. Based on current fundamental and technical elements, we expect this break...

This week major indexes stopped at major resistance, so once again, we find ourselves on the “knife’s edge, a precarious balance between going higher and falling off the cliff.     On My Radar In the chart of the S&P 500 below, we can see how price stopped at 1332 which is exactly the resistance level at the top of the most recent columns of Xs and Os, and we see that we’re still in “bearish” mode with a price objective of 1160. A move higher to challenge the 1340 level would indicate a breakout to higher prices while support is at the 1250 level.   Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com Last week offered another round of mixed news on the data front and more “Fed Speak” regarding potentially higher inflation and the possibility of higher interest rates or the end to easing ahead; this kind of talk could certainly give pause to the liquidity fueled rally of recent months. The View From 35,000 Feet Last week’s big news was the...